Sunday, April 26, 2015

A mathematician's analysis of the Kathmandu earthquake - Painting by numbers

Good Morning, Kathmandu! It is noon on April 27th, 2 days post the 7.8 scale quake that has since set off almost 50 aftershocks, or one every 50 minutes, on average. 

I hope tonight will be much better for you than the last two. The numbers below strongly suggest they will. To start, as of right now (10:45 AM), you have gone for four hours without an aftershock, two times longer than at any time in the last 2 days. I hope this continues for many more hours. 

[(Update at 7pm) - Good evening Kathmandu - you have had NO aftershocks in the last 12 hours! There was a 5 scale on the Nepal/India border. We are praying that these are the final ones, and there are very few ahead. Sleep tight - you must be so tired. Sweetdreams!] 

In the last 12 hours, you were hit by 8 shocks averaging 4.5 on the intensity scale. You received an aftershock twice every three hours, which is similar to the 12 hours before that. 

Compare this with the first 18 hours, when you were hit by 34 shocks, at the rate of one every thirty minutes! They averaged 5.0. Remember that 5.0 is 5 times stronger than 4.5 on the logarithmic earthquake scale. The intensity of the shocks is declining...  

The picture below (click to enlarge) has every shock you received in the last 42 hours, 49 in total. In the last 10 hours, its fallen to 4. Things continue to normalize, and I hope your lives will too.

Thinking of you as we go to bed across the globe. God bless you all and look after you this day.

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